Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in the assessment of water-related risks in southern Europe and neighbouring countries

The project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins – Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modelling System, www.climb-fp7.eu) aims to investigate present and future climate induced changes in the hydrological budgets and extremes for Mediterranean and neighbouring countries. We provide a concept for an integrated modelling and assessment set-up to tackle the challenge of quantifying parameter related uncertainties and associated risks with the water balance simulation model ETH (WaSiM-ETH) for the cultivation of tomatoes in Chiba basin, Tunisia, which is a test site within the CLIMB project. This study indicates that it is already delicate to cultivate tomatoes in the watershed under rain-fed conditions with a deteriorating trend in the future. This is associated with considerable yield reduction for tomatoes and thus economic impacts for local farmers.